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2024年賓夕法尼亞州聯邦參議員選舉

2024年賓夕法尼亞州聯邦參議員選舉於11月5日舉行，旨在選舉出代表賓夕法尼亞州的美國參議院議員。在此次選舉中，現任民主黨籍參議員小鮑勃·凱西敗於共和黨提名人戴維·麥考密克，未能贏得第四任期。[1]此次選舉初選於2024年4月23日舉行。[2]這場選舉被視為民主黨能否保住參議院多數黨地位的關鍵之戰。[3]

2024年賓夕法尼亞州聯邦參議員選舉
← 2018年 2024年11月5日 2030年 →
 
獲提名人 戴維·麥考密克 小鮑勃·凱西
政黨 共和黨 民主黨
民選得票 3,398,495 3,384,180
得票率 48.82% 48.60%
選前聯邦參議員

小鮑勃·凱西
民主黨

當選聯邦參議員

戴維·麥考密克
共和黨

背景

編輯

賓夕法尼亞州在聯邦層面被認為是搖擺州，尤其是因為在2020年總統大選中喬·拜登僅以約1.2個百分點的優勢贏得該州。民主黨目前控制着賓夕法尼亞州的聯邦參議員以及州長職位，同時在該州聯邦眾議院代表團以及賓夕法尼亞州眾議院占據多數。共和黨上次於賓夕法尼亞州贏得聯邦參議員席位是在2016年。[4][5][6][7]

現任參議員小鮑勃·凱西於2006年的藍色浪潮中順利當選，當時他以大約17個百分點的優勢擊敗了時任參議員里克·桑托勒姆。在2012年他以9個百分點的優勢再次當選（當時他領先奧巴馬近4個百分點），並在2018年的藍色浪潮中以13個百分點的優勢再次當選。[8][9][10]

這場競選因該州黨派傾向接近均衡而被視為競爭激烈的選舉，然而大多數民調顯示凱西略微領先，是獲勝的熱門人選。[11]

民主黨初選

編輯

候選人

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提名人

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取消資格

編輯
  • 威廉·帕克，應用程序開發人員[13][14]

各方背書

編輯
小鮑勃·凱西
行政部門官員
  • 帕特里克·墨菲，美國陸軍代理部長（2016年），前賓夕法尼亞州第八國會選區聯邦眾議員（2007-2011 年）[15]
聯邦參議員
聯邦眾議員
州級官員
個人
  • 哈里·鄧恩，前美國國會警察[19]
  • 克里斯蒂娜·津津·拉米雷斯 ，勞工組織者、下一代美國作戰行動委員會主席（2021年至今）[20]
政黨
組織
工會
報紙

籌款狀況

編輯
截至2024年4月15日競選財務報告
候選人 籌款數 花銷 手頭資金
小鮑勃·凱西（D） $23,790,263 $12,391,802 $11,886,480
來源：聯邦選舉委員會[49]

選舉結果

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民主黨初選結果[50]
黨派 候選人 得票數 百分比
民主黨 小鮑勃·凱西（現任） 1,024,545 100.00%
合計 1,024,545 100.00%

共和黨初選

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候選人

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提名人

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中途退選

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  • 布蘭迪·托馬塞蒂，前康尼斯托加鎮財務主管兼秘書（以海選候選人身份參選）[52]

取消資格

編輯

拒絕參選

編輯
  • 凱西·巴內特，政治評論員，2020年賓夕法尼亞州第四國會選區候選人，2022年聯邦參議院候選人[54]
  • 斯泰西·加里蒂，賓夕法尼亞州司庫（2021年至今）[55] （參選連任）[56]
  • 道格·馬斯特里亞諾，州參議院第33選區參議員（2019年至今），2022 年賓夕法尼亞州州長候選人[57] （背書麥考密克）[58]

各方背書

編輯
戴維·麥考密克
行政部門官員
聯邦官員
州內閣官員
  • 羅伯特·格里森，前賓夕法尼亞州州務卿（1985年-1987年）[63]
聯邦參議員
聯邦眾議員
州參議員
  • 瑞安·奧門特，賓夕法尼亞州參議院第36選區議員（2015年至今）[70]
  • 道格·馬斯特里亞諾，賓夕法尼亞州參議院第33選區議員（2019年至今）和2022年州長選舉共和黨候選人[58]
地方官員
  • 山姆·德馬科，阿勒格尼縣議員（2016年至今）兼阿勒格尼縣共和黨主席（2018年至今）[71]
政黨官員
  • 安德魯·賴利，賓夕法尼亞州共和黨全國委員會委員（2020年至今）[63]
  • 克里斯汀·托雷蒂，賓夕法尼亞州共和黨全國委員會委員（1997年至今）[63]
組織
政黨
個人

籌款

編輯
截至2024年4月15日競選財務報告
候選人 籌款數 花銷 手頭現金
戴維·麥考密克（R） $11,052,879 $4,660,701 $6,399,998
來源：聯邦選舉委員會[49]

民調

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假定狀況下的民調
民調來源 調查
日期 		樣本
大小[a] 		誤差
幅度 		凱西·巴內特 道格·馬斯特里亞諾 戴維·麥考密克 未決定
Public Policy Polling (D) 2023年3月9日至10日 616 (LV) – 11% 39% 21% 29%
– – 42% 28% 29%

選舉結果

編輯
共和黨初選結果[50]
黨派 候選人 得票數 百分比
共和黨 戴維·麥考密克 878,320 100.00%
合計 878,320 100.00%

第三黨候選人

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自由意志黨大會

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提名人

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  • 約翰·托馬斯，教育家[80]

大會上被淘汰

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  • 埃里克·格哈特，木匠，2022年聯邦參議員選舉提名人，2020年總統候選人[81]

綠黨

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提名人

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  • 利拉·哈祖，店主[82]

憲法黨

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提名人

編輯
  • 伯納德·塞爾克，卡車司機[82]

美國團結黨

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取消資格

編輯
  • 埃里克·梅西納[83]

決選

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預測

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來源 評級 日期
庫克政治報告[84] 搖擺不定 2024年10月21日
選舉內部[85] 傾向D 2023年11月9日
薩巴託的水晶球[86] 偏向D 2024年6月13日
DDHQ/國會山報[87] 偏向D 2024年6月8日
選舉日報[88] 偏向D 2024年10月24日
CNalysis[89] 偏向D 2023年11月21日
真清晰政治[90] 搖擺不定 2024年8月5日
分裂投票[91] 偏向D 2024年10月23日
538[92] 偏向D 2024年10月28日

初選後各方背書

編輯
小鮑勃·凱西（D）
行政部門官員
約翰·托馬斯（L）
個人
  • 本·蔡斯洛夫特，《每日連線》基督教保守派評論員[96]
  • 比爾·考克斯，小羅伯特·肯尼迪的賓夕法尼亞州總統競選主任[97]
戴維·麥考密克（R）
美國前行政官員
聯邦參議員
個人

籌款狀況

編輯
截至2024年10月16日競選財務報告
候選人 籌款數 花銷 手頭資金
小鮑勃·凱西（D） $52,879,737 $50,545,793 $2,821,961
戴維·麥考密克（R） $27,698,652[b] $26,030,736 $1,675,736
來源：聯邦選舉委員會[49]

辯論

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2024年賓夕法尼亞州聯邦參議員選舉辯論
編號 日期 主辦方 主持人 鏈接 民主黨 共和黨
 P  參加   A  缺席   N  未受邀   I  受邀 W  退出
凱西 麥考密克
1 2024年10月3日 WHTM-TV 丹尼斯·歐文斯 YouTube P P
2 2024年10月15日 WPVI-TV 馬特·奧唐納、莎莉·威廉姆斯以及伊利亞·加西亞 C-SPAN P P

民調

編輯
民意調查匯總
民意調查匯總來源 調查日期 更新日期 小鮑勃·凱西（D） 戴維·麥考密克（R） 未決定
[c] 		誤差
FiveThirtyEight 截至2024年11月4日 2024年11月4日 48.2% 45.4% 6.4% 凱西+2.8%
RealClearPolitics 2024年10月21日至11月4日 2024年11月4日 48.1% 46.3% 5.6% 凱西+1.8%
270toWin 2024年10月24日至11月4日 2024年11月4日 48.4% 45.9% 5.7% 凱西+2.5%
TheHill/DDHQ 截至2024年11月4日 2024年11月4日 48.6% 46.6% 4.8% 凱西+2.0%
平均 48.3% 46.1% 5.6% 凱西+2.2%
民調來源 調查
日期 		樣本
大小[a] 		誤差
幅度 		小鮑勃·凱西（D） 戴維·麥考密克（R） 其他 未決定
AtlasIntel 2024年11月3日至4日 1,840 (LV) ± 2.0% 49% 47% 2% 2%
Survation 2024年11月1日至4日 929 (LV) – 49% 42% 3%[d] 6%
Research Co. 2024年11月2日至3日 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 48% 46% 2%[e] 4%
Patriot Polling (R) 2024年11月1日至3日 903 (RV) ± 3.0% 50% 49% – –
The Trafalgar Group (R) 2024年11月1日至3日 1,089 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 47% – 7%
InsiderAdvantage (R) 2024年11月1日至2日 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 47% 2% 3%
AtlasIntel 2024年11月1日至2日 2,049 (LV) ± 2.0% 49% 47% 3%[f] 2%
Emerson College[A] 2024年10月30日至11月2日 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 47% – 6%
NYT/Siena College[B] 2024年10月29日至11月2日 1,527 (LV) ± 2.9% 50% 45% – 4%
1,527 (RV) ± 2.8% 50% 45% – 6%
Mainstreet Research/FAU 2024年10月25日至11月2日 699 (LV) ± 3.6% 49% 44% 1%[g] 6%
726 (RV) ± 3.6% 48% 43% 2%[h] 7%
Morning Consult 2024年10月23日至11月1日 1,538 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 43% – 11%
OnMessage (R) 2024年10月29日至31日 800 (LV) – 46% 46% – 8%
Data for Progress (D) 2024年10月25日至31日 908 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 45% 2%[i] 4%
YouGov[C] 2024年10月25日至31日 947 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 44% – 6%
982 (RV) 50% 43% – 6%
ActiVote 2024年10月14日至31日 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 50.5% 49.5% – –
Muhlenberg College[D] 2024年10月27日至30日 460 (LV) ± 6.0% 49% 46% 3% 1%
Suffolk University[E] 2024年10月27日至30日 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 46% 2%[i] 2%
Marist College October 27–30, 2024 1,400 (LV) ± 3.4% 50% 48% 1%[j] 1%
1,558 (RV) ± 3.2% 50% 48% 1%[j] 1%
Echelon Insights October 27–30, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.5% 44% 47% 3%[k] 5%
AtlasIntel October 27–30, 2024 1,738 (LV) ± 2.0% 49% 46% 3%[f] 2%
The Washington Post October 26–30, 2024 1,204 (LV) ± 3.1% 49% 46% 2%[l] 3%
1,204 (RV) 49% 45% 3%[m] 3%
AtlasIntel 2024年10月25日至29日 1,229 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 47% 3%[f] 2%
Fox News October 24–28, 2024 1,057 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 48% – 1%
1,310 (RV) ± 2.5% 51% 46% 1% 2%
Quinnipiac University October 24–28, 2024 2,186 (LV) ± 2.1% 50% 47% 2%[n] 1%
Monmouth University October 24–28, 2024 824 (RV) ± 3.8% 45% 44% – 12%
CNN/SSRS October 23–28, 2024 819 (LV) ± 4.7% 48% 45% 6%[o] 1%
CBS News/YouGov October 22–28, 2024 1,249 (LV) ± 3.6% 48% 42% 3%[p] 7%
InsiderAdvantage (R) October 26–27, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 47% 2%[q] 4%
North Star Opinion Research (R)[F] October 22–26, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 42% 5%[r] 9%
UMass Lowell/YouGov October 16–23, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.7% 48% 42% 3%[s] 7%
Emerson College[G] October 21–22, 2024 860 (LV) ± 3.3% 47% 46% 2%[t] 6%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) October 18–22, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 46% 2%[u] 4%
Franklin & Marshall College October 9–20, 2024 583 (LV) ± 5.0% 49% 48% – 3%
794 (RV) ± 4.3% 48% 41% 5%[v] 6%
The Trafalgar Group (R) October 17–19, 2024 1,084 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 47% – 6%
AtlasIntel October 12–17, 2024 2,048 (LV) ± 2.0% 47% 48% 2%[w] 3%
The Bullfinch Group October 11–17, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 43% – 8%
YouGov[H] October 7–17, 2024 1,043 (LV) ± 3.44% 50% 42% – 8%
1,062 (RV) ± 3.4% 49% 42% – 9%
Morning Consult October 6–15, 2024 1,395 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 41% – 10%
NYT/Siena College[B] October 7–10, 2024 857 (LV) ± 3.8% 48% 44% – 8%
857 (RV) ± 3.7% 48% 43% – 9%
American Pulse Research & Polling October 2–10, 2024 1,193 (LV) ± 2.8% 48% 45% 2%[x] 5%
TIPP Insights (R)[F] October 7–9, 2024 803 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 43% 1%[y] 9%
1,079 (RV) 48% 40% 1%[z] 12%
UMass Lowell/YouGov October 2–9, 2024 800 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 39% 3%[aa] 10%
InsiderAdvantage (R) October 7–8, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 45% 2%[q] 6%
Emerson College[A] October 5–8, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 46% – 6%
Research Co. October 5–7, 2024 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 47% 44% 1%[ab] 8%
Quinnipiac University October 3–7, 2024 1,412 (LV) ± 2.6% 51% 43% 2%[ac] 5%
ActiVote September 6 – October 7, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 53% 47% – –
OnMessage Inc. (R)[ad] September 28–29, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 45% 44% 5%[ae] 7%
Patriot Polling (R) September 27–29, 2024 816 (RV) ± 3.0% 51% 48% – –
The Bullfinch Group[I] September 26–29, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.46% 48% 39% 12%[af] –
52% 42% 6%[ag] –
The Trafalgar Group (R) September 26–29, 2024 1,090 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 46% – 7%
Emerson College[G] September 27–28, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 45% – 8%
AtlasIntel September 20–25, 2024 1,775 (LV) ± 2.0% 47% 45% 1%[ah] 6%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[J] September 19–25, 2024 474 (LV) – 48% 42% 3%[ai] 6%
52% 45% – 3%
Fox News September 20–24, 2024 775 (LV) ± 3.5% 53% 44% 1%[aj] 2%
1,021 (RV) ± 3.0% 53% 44% 1%[aj] 2%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/
Impact Research (D)[K] 		September 17–24, 2024 816 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 45% – 6%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) September 16–22, 2024 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 48% 40% 1%[ak] 11%
RMG Research[L] September 18–20, 2024 783 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 44% 1%[aj] 5%
Remington Research Group (R)[M] September 16–20, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 45% – 7%
Muhlenberg College[D] September 16–19, 2024 450 (LV) ± 6.0% 48% 43% 5% 4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[N] September 16–19, 2024 1,086 (LV) ± 2.8% 47% 41% 2%[al] 10%
UMass Lowell/YouGov September 11–19, 2024 800 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 38% 3%[aa] 13%
Emerson College[A] September 15–18, 2024 880 (LV) ± 3.2% 47% 42% – 11%
MassINC Polling Group[O] September 12–18, 2024 800 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 42% 2%[am] 6%
Morning Consult September 9–18, 2024 1,756 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 40% – 11%
Marist College September 12–17, 2024 1,663 (RV) ± 2.0% 52% 46% 1%[j] 1%
1,476 (LV) ± 3.2% 52% 47% – 1%
Quinnipiac University September 12–16, 2024 1,331 (LV) ± 2.7% 52% 43% 1%[an] 3%
The Washington Post September 12–16, 2024 1,003 (LV) ± 3.6% 47% 46% 7%[ao] –
48% 48% 5%[ap] –
NYT/Siena College[B] September 11–16, 2024 1,082 (RV) ± 4.1% 48% 39% – 13%
1,082 (LV) ± 4.3% 49% 40% – 11%
InsiderAdvantage (R) September 14–15, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 44% 2%[q] 5%
Franklin & Marshall College September 4–15, 2024 890 (RV) ± 4.1% 48% 40% 3%[aq] 10%
Suffolk University[E] September 11–14, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 43% 2%[ar] 8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[N] September 6–9, 2024 801 (LV) ± 3.0% 44% 36% 5%[as] 14%
Morning Consult August 30 – September 8, 2024 1,910 (LV) ± 2.0% 49% 40% – 11%
co/efficient September 4–6, 2024 889 (LV) ± 3.29% 45% 36% – 19%
CBS News/YouGov September 3–6, 2024 1,076 (LV) ± 3.4% 48% 41% 3%[at] 8%
YouGov[C] August 23 – September 3, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.6% 52% 41% – 8%
The Trafalgar Group (R) August 28–30, 2024 1,082 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 45% – 8%
CNN/SRSS August 23–29, 2024 789 (LV) ± 4.7% 46% 46% 7%[au] 1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[N] August 25–28, 2024 1,071 (LV) ± 2.8% 44% 38% 4%[av] 14%
Emerson College[A] August 25–28, 2024 950 (LV) ± 3.1% 48% 44% – 8%
SoCal Strategies (R)[P] August 23, 2024 713 (LV) – 47% 41% – 12%
800 (RV) – 45% 40% – 15%
ActiVote August 3-23, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 55% 45% – –
Fabrizio Ward[Q] August 19–21, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 46% 43% – 11%
Cygnal (R) August 14–15, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.4% 46% 42% – 12%
42% 38% 7%[aw] 13%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[N] August 12–15, 2024 825 (LV) ± 3.2% 44% 36% 1%[ax] 17%
Emerson College August 13–14, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 44% – 8%
Quinnipiac University August 8–12, 2024 1,738 (LV) ± 2.4% 52% 44% 1%[ay] 3%
The Bullfinch Group[R] August 8–11, 2024 500 (RV) ± 4.38% 51% 39% – 10%
Franklin & Marshall College July 21 – August 11, 2024 920 (RV) ± 3.8% 48% 36% 3%[az] 13%
NYT/Siena College August 6–9, 2024 693 (RV) ± 4.0% 50% 36% – 14%
693 (LV) ± 4.2% 51% 37% – 11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[N] July 31 – August 3, 2024 743 (LV) ± 3.4% 45% 40% 2%[ba] 12%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[J] July 26 – August 2, 2024 411 (LV) – 53% 40% – 7%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) July 22–28, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 42% – 11%
Fox News July 22–24, 2024 1,034 (RV) ± 3.0% 55% 42% – 1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[N] July 22–24, 2024 851 (LV) ± 3.1% 46% 39% 4%[bb] 11%
Emerson College[S] July 22–23, 2024 850 (RV) ± 3.3% 48% 44% – 8%
SoCal Research (R)[T] July 20–21, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 50% 40% – 10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[U] July 17–18, 2024 624 (RV) ± 3.8% 50% 39% – 11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[N] July 16–18, 2024 688 (LV) – 44% 37% 3%[bc] 15%
Public Policy Polling (D)[V] July 11–12, 2024 537 (RV) – 47% 44% – 9%
YouGov[C] July 4–12, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.4% 50% 38% 1% 11%
889 (LV) – 51% 39% 1% 9%
NYT/Siena College July 9–11, 2024 872 (RV) ± 3.7% 50% 39% – 10%
872 (LV) ± 3.8% 50% 42% – 8%
Expedition Strategies[W] June 24 – July 8, 2024 284 (LV) – 48% 45% – 7%
Remington Research Group (R)[M] June 29 – July 1, 2024 673 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 48% – 4%
Cygnal (R) June 27–28, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 42% – 12%
The Bullfinch Group[X] June 14–19, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 48% 36% – 16%
Emerson College[A] June 13–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 41% – 12%
Marist College June 3–6, 2024 1,181 (RV) ± 3.6% 52% 46% – 2%
Mainstreet Research/FAU May 30–31, 2024 1,012 (RV) ± 3.1% 48% 40% 5% 7%
923 (LV) ± 3.1% 49% 42% 3% 6%
KAConsulting (R)[Y] May 15–19, 2024 600 (RV) – 47% 37% 4%[bd] 12%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[J] May 6–13, 2024 730 (LV) ± 3.6% 49% 41% – 10%
NYT/Siena College[B] April 28 – May 9, 2024 1,023 (RV) ± 3.6% 46% 41% – 13%
1,023 (LV) ± 3.6% 46% 44% – 10%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
Impact Research (D)[K] 		April 24–30, 2024 1,398 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 44% – 8%
Emerson College[A] April 25–29, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 42% – 12%
CBS News/YouGov April 19–25, 2024 1,306 (LV) ± 3.1% 46% 39% – 15%
Muhlenberg College April 15–25, 2024 417 (RV) ± 6.0% 45% 41% 5% 9%
The Bullfinch Group[R] March 29 – April 3, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 38% 9% 8%
National Public Affairs March 2024 759 (LV) ± 3.6% 32% 28% – 40%
Franklin & Marshall College March 20–31, 2024 431 (RV) ± 5.7% 46% 39% – 15%
The Bullfinch Group[X] March 22–26, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 47% 30% 8% 15%
Emerson College March 10–13, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 52% 48% – –
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) February 27 – March 7, 2024 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 48% 42% – 10%
Emerson College February 14–16, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 39% – 13%
Chism Strategies February 6–8, 2024 500 (RV) ± 5.0% 38% 37% – 25%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[Z] January 22–25, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 40% – 12%
Franklin & Marshall College January 17–28, 2023 1,006 (RV) ± 3.6% 47% 35% 4% 14%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) January 15–21, 2024 745 (LV) ± 3.7% 46% 42% 3% 9%
Quinnipiac University January 4–8, 2024 1,680 (RV) ± 2.4% 53% 43% 1%[aj] 2%
Common Ground (R)[X] December 8–12, 2023 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 42% 27% 13%[be] 20%
Change Research (D)[AA] December 3–7, 2023 2,532 (RV) ± 3.5% 44% 41% 0% 15%
Franklin & Marshall College October 11–22, 2023 873 (RV) ± 4.1% 46% 39% 4% 12%
Emerson College October 1–4, 2023 430 (RV) ± 4.7% 41% 33% 8% 18%
Quinnipiac University September 28 – October 2, 2023 1,725 (RV) ± 2.4% 50% 44% 2%[bf] 4%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) May 2–8, 2023 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 53% 41% 1% 5%
Cygnal (R) April 12–13, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 41% 0% 13%
Franklin & Marshall College March 27 – April 7, 2023 643 (RV) ± 6.6% 42% 35% – 23%
假定狀況下的民調
小鮑勃·凱西 vs 道格·馬斯特里亞諾
民調來源 調查
日期 		樣本
大小[a] 		誤差
幅度 		小鮑勃·凱西（D） 道格·馬斯特里亞諾（R） 未決定
Franklin & Marshall College March 27 – April 7, 2023 643 (RV) ± 3.7% 47% 31% 22%
Cygnal (R) April 12–13, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 39% 12%

選舉結果

編輯
2024年賓夕法尼亞州聯邦參議員
黨派 候選人 得票數 百分比
共和黨 戴維·麥考密克 3,399,295 48.82%
民主黨 小鮑勃·凱西（現任） 3,384,180 48.60%
自由黨 約翰·托馬斯 89,653 1.29%
綠黨 利拉·哈祖 66,388 0.95%
憲法黨 伯納德·塞爾克 23,621 0.34%
總票數 6,963,137 100.0%

參見

編輯

注釋

編輯
  1. ^ 1.0 1.1 1.2 示例：
    A – 全部成人
    RV – 登記選民
    LV – 可能的選民
    V – 不清楚
  2. ^ 其中麥考密克自籌資金4,263,800美元
  3. ^ 計算方法為取100%與其他所有候選人的成績之差。
  4. ^ 托馬斯（L）和哈祖（G）各占1%； 1%選「拒絕」
  5. ^ 「其他候選人」占2%
  6. ^ 6.0 6.1 6.2 "Other" with 2%; "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%
  7. ^ 「另一位候選人」占1%
  8. ^ 「另一位候選人」占2%
  9. ^ 9.0 9.1 Thomas (L) and Hazou (G) with 1%
  10. ^ 10.0 10.1 10.2 "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  11. ^ 哈祖（G）2%； 托馬斯（L）1%
  12. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; "Would not vote" with 1%
  13. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; "Would not vote" with 2%
  14. ^ "Refused" with 2%
  15. ^ "Other" with 4%; "Neither" with 2%
  16. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  17. ^ 17.0 17.1 17.2 "Other" with 2%
  18. ^ Thomas (L) with 2%; Hazou (G) and Selker (C) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  19. ^ Thomas with 2%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  20. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  21. ^ "Refuse" with 2%
  22. ^ "Other" (Thomas (L), Hazou (G) & Selker (C)) with 5%
  23. ^ "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  24. ^ "Another candidate" with 2%
  25. ^ "Other" with 1%
  26. ^ "Other" with 1%
  27. ^ 27.0 27.1 Hazou (G) and Thomas (L) with 1%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  28. ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%
  29. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
  30. ^ Poll sponsored by Sentinel Action Fund
  31. ^ "Other" with 5%
  32. ^ "None of the Above" with 9%; "Other" with 3%
  33. ^ Thomas (L) with 3%, Hazou (G) with 2%, and Selker (C) with 1%
  34. ^ "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%; "Other" with <1%
  35. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; "Would not vote" with 2%
  36. ^ 36.0 36.1 36.2 36.3 "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  37. ^ "Other" with 1%
  38. ^ Thomas (L), "Wouldn't vote if these are the candidates" with 1%
  39. ^ "Another candidate" and "Would not vote for senate" each with 1%; "Prefer not to say" with <1%
  40. ^ "Refused" with 1%
  41. ^ "No opinion/Skipped" with 4%; Thomas (L), Hazou (G), and "Would not vote" each with 1%
  42. ^ "No opinion/Skipped" with 3%; "Would not vote" each with 2%
  43. ^ "Other" with 3%
  44. ^ Thomas (L) with 1%; Selker (C) with 1%; Hazou (G) with <1%
  45. ^ "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 4%; Thomas (L) with 1%
  46. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  47. ^ "Other" with 4%; "Neither" with 3%
  48. ^ Thomas (L) with 1%; Hazou (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%; "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 1%
  49. ^ Thomas (L) with 3%; Hazou (G) with 2%; Messina (AS) and Selker (C) with 1%
  50. ^ Leila Hazou (G) with 1%, John Thomas (L), "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)", and Marty Selker (C) with 0%
  51. ^ "Refused" with 1%
  52. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  53. ^ John Thomas (L) and "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 1%; Leila Hazou (G) and Marty Selker (C) with 0%
  54. ^ John Thomas (L) with 2%; Leila Hazou (G) with 1%; Marty Selker (C) with 0%; "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 1%
  55. ^ Leila Hazou (G), John Thomas (L), and Marty Selker (C) with 1%
  56. ^ "Would not vote" with 3%; "Someone else" with 1%
  57. ^ "None of the above" with 8%; "Other" with 5%
  58. ^ "Someone else" & "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
黨派
  1. ^ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 Poll sponsored by The Hill
  2. ^ 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 Poll sponsored by The Philadelphia Inquirer
  3. ^ 3.0 3.1 3.2 Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
  4. ^ 4.0 4.1 Poll sponsored by The Morning Call
  5. ^ 5.0 5.1 Poll sponsored by USA Today
  6. ^ 6.0 6.1 Poll sponsored by American Greatness
  7. ^ 7.0 7.1 Poll sponsored by RealClearPennsylvania
  8. ^ Poll sponsored by Rose Institute of State and Local Government
  9. ^ Poll sponsored by the Commonwealth Foundation
  10. ^ 10.0 10.1 10.2 Poll sponsored by The Cook Political Report
  11. ^ 11.0 11.1 Poll commissioned by AARP
  12. ^ Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
  13. ^ 13.0 13.1 Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republicans.
  14. ^ 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.6 Poll sponsored by The Daily Telegraph
  15. ^ Poll sponsored by Spotlight PA
  16. ^ Poll sponsored by On Point Politics and Red Eagle Politics, the latter of which supports the Republican Party.
  17. ^ Poll sponsored by the Pinpoint Policy Institute
  18. ^ 18.0 18.1 Poll sponsored by the Independent Center
  19. ^ Poll sponsored by The Hill and Nexstar
  20. ^ Poll sponsored by On Point Politics
  21. ^ Poll sponsored by Clean and Prosperous America PAC, a group that supports Democrats.
  22. ^ Poll sponsored by the Progress Action Fund, which is a sponsor of the Democratic Party.
  23. ^ Poll Sponsored by Progressive Policy Institute
  24. ^ 24.0 24.1 24.2 Poll sponsored by the Commonwealth Foundation, a conservative think tank
  25. ^ Poll conducted for Vapor Technology Association
  26. ^ Poll sponsored by McCormick's campaign
  27. ^ Poll sponsored by Future Majority, a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party.

參考文獻

編輯
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  17. ^ Mark Kelly isn't on the 2024 ballot. He's traveling the country for Dems anyway. Politico. 2024-01-30. 
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  26. ^ End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorses Senator Bob Casey for Reelection. End Citizens United | We the People, Not "We the Wealthy". 2023-06-26 [2023-06-26] （美國英語）. 
  27. ^ 2024 – Feminist Majority PAC. feministmajoritypac.org. [2024-02-09]. （原始內容存檔於2023-04-11）. 
  28. ^ GIFFORDS PAC Endorses Bob Casey for Reelection to the US Senate. Giffords. 2023-11-14 [2023-10-15]. （原始內容存檔於2023-11-16） （美國英語）. 
  29. ^ Presenting the official Spring 2024 Harvard Dems Endorsement Results! Congratulations to all who were endorsed! 🫶🏻✨. www.instagram.com. [2024-02-08]. （原始內容存檔於2024-04-10）. 
  30. ^ Human Rights Campaign Endorses Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey for Reelection. Human Rights Campaign. 2024-08-14 [2024-08-14]. 
  31. ^ 2024 Endorsements. 2024 Endorsements. [2024-02-16]. （原始內容存檔於2024-01-21） （英語）. 
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  36. ^ Dison, Denis. NRDC Action Fund Endorses 51 House, Senate Incumbents. NRDC Action Fund. 2023-09-20 [2023-09-20]. （原始內容存檔於2023-09-20） （美國英語）. 
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  55. ^ A well-liked incumbent stands in the way of Republicans retaking the Pennsylvania Senate seat. 2023-05-25. 
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  57. ^ Weaver, Al. Doug Mastriano decides against launching Senate bid. The Hill. 2023-05-25. 
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  68. ^ Tamari, Jonathan. McCormick's Second Senate Try Hinges on Fitting a Changed GOP. Bloomberg Government. 2023-05-24 [2023-10-01]. （原始內容存檔於2023-10-26）. 
  69. ^ Eberwein, Richard. David McCormick's campaign won't say if he would support Duckworth's bill to protect IVF. Heartland Signal. 2024-03-07 [2024-04-03]. （原始內容存檔於2024-04-03）. 
  70. ^ White, Jaxon. State Sen. Ryan Aument would endorse Dave McCormick's U.S. Senate run. LNP Lancaster Online. 2023-09-21 [2023-10-01] （美國英語）. 
  71. ^ Levy, Marc. Trump blowback could carry less bite in 2024 for some in GOP. Associated Press. 2022-12-08 [2023-01-19]. （原始內容存檔於2023-01-29） （英語）. 
  72. ^ Seidel, Emily. Americans for Prosperity Action Announces First Wave of Endorsements in 2024 U.S. Senate Races. AFP Action. 2023-07-19 [2023-07-19]. （原始內容存檔於2024-02-24） （美國英語）. 
  73. ^ 73.0 73.1 CPAC Endorses David McCormick for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania. CPAC. [2024-11-09]. （原始內容存檔於2023-10-18）. 
  74. ^ 2024 ENDORSED CANDIDATES. Log Cabin Republicans. [2024-04-03]. 
  75. ^ Pennsylvania Federation of College Republicans (@PACRFederation). PAFCR Endorses @DaveMcCormickPA in Crucial Race for United States Senate. Twitter. 2023-10-01 [2023-10-02]. 
  76. ^ Penn State College Republicans (@PennStateGOP). Penn State College Republicans Endorse Dave McCormick for United States Senate. Twitter. 2023-10-01 [2023-10-01]. （原始內容存檔於2023-10-25） （美國英語）. 
  77. ^ RJC Endorses Pennsylvania US Senate Candidate Dave McCormick. Republican Jewish Coalition. [2024-02-16]. （原始內容存檔於2024-02-16） （英語）. 
  78. ^ Mastrull, Diane. David McCormick secures Pa. GOP endorsement in his Senate run. The Philadelphia Inquirer. 2023-09-30 [2023-09-30] （英語）. 
  79. ^ 79.0 79.1 79.2 Lai, Stephanie. Ken Griffin, Charles Schwab to Host Fundraiser for David McCormick's Senate Bid. Bloomberg. 2023-12-14 [2024-04-17] （美國英語）. 
  80. ^ Deemer, Jacob. Armstrong County Man Launches U.S. Senate Campaign. exploreClarion. 2024-04-11 [2024-04-14]. （原始內容存檔於2024-04-12）. 
  81. ^ Nominations for Statewide Offices. Libertarian Party of Pennsylvania. 2024-03-02 [2024-04-14]. 
  82. ^ 82.0 82.1 Third-party candidates file to run for president, US Senate in Pennsylvania. PennLIVE Patriot-News. The Associated Press. 2024-08-01 [2024-08-02]. （原始內容存檔於2024-08-02）. 
  83. ^ PA Voter Services. www.pavoterservices.pa.gov. [2024-08-02]. （原始內容存檔於2024-08-02）. 
  84. ^ 2024 Senate Race ratings. Cook Political Report. [2023-01-25]. （原始內容存檔於2018-11-30） （英語）. 
  85. ^ Senate Ratings. Inside Elections. 2023-01-06 [2023-01-10]. （原始內容存檔於2021-01-20）. 
  86. ^ 2024 Senate. Sabato's Crystal Ball. 2023-01-24 [2023-02-13]. （原始內容存檔於2023-01-26）. 
  87. ^ 2024 Senate prediction map. elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. 2024-06-08 [2024-06-08]. （原始內容存檔於2024-03-12）. 
  88. ^ Election Ratings. Elections Daily. 2023-08-01 [2023-08-02]. （原始內容存檔於2023-11-03） （美國英語）. 
  89. ^ '24 Senate Forecast. CNalysis. [2023-11-21]. （原始內容存檔於2024-03-02） （美國英語）. 
  90. ^ Battle for the Senate 2024. RealClearPolitics. [2024-08-05]. （原始內容存檔於2024-08-13） （美國英語）. 
  91. ^ 2024 Senate Forecast. Split Ticket. 2023-05-25 [2024-10-23]. （原始內容存檔於2024-10-09）. 
  92. ^ 2024 Election Forecast. FiveThirtyEight. 2024-06-11 [2024-10-23]. （原始內容存檔於2024-11-03）. 
  93. ^ Fay, Laura. Biden to campaign with Sen. Bob Casey in Philadelphia area Tuesday night. CBS News. 2024-10-08 [2024-11-10]. （原始內容存檔於2024-10-09）. 
  94. ^ Remarks by Vice President Harris at a Campaign Event. The White House. 2024-09-14 [2024-10-09]. （原始內容存檔於2024-10-08）. 
  95. ^ Colson-Price, Patrick. Former president Obama campaigns for Kamala Harris, Tim Walz, Sen. Bob Casey in Pittsburgh. USA Today. 2024-10-10 [2024-10-15]. 
  96. ^ @BenZeisloft. I am an evangelical voter in Pennsylvania. Donald Trump could have had my vote had he not started to support most kinds of abortion and vowed to fund IVF with my tax dollars. I am casting my vote for @DustyDeevers as President and for @BradleyWPierce as Vice President. I know that both men fear the Lord and would establish justice if they were elected. I voted for some Republicans in state and local races, some third-party candidates like @JohnThomasPA who have vowed to protect the preborn, and wrote in qualified Christian men when there were no other options. None of this was necessary. I would have voted for Donald Trump or any other Republican candidate who vowed to protect the preborn and end mass child sacrifice in our nation. If the Republican Party wants evangelical votes, they cannot shirk evangelical policy priorities, and most importantly they cannot shirk their duty to obey and honor the Triune God and govern in their offices with justice and righteousness. I will not reward betrayal with my vote. (推文) –透過Twitter.  Missing or empty |date= (help)
  97. ^ Libertarian US Senate candidate receives crucial endorsement. Leader Times. 2024-10-03 [2024-10-10]. 
  98. ^ Suter, Tara. Nikki Haley tells Pennsylvania voters: 'Take the emotion out' of vote. The Hill. 2024-10-31 [2024-11-03] （英語）. 
  99. ^ Mutnick, Ally. John Thune doles out the money as he runs for Senate GOP leader. Politico. 2024-10-15 [2024-10-17] （英語）. 
  100. ^ Phox, Jason. McCormick joins Musk at Pittsburgh-area town hall. Pennsylvania Capital-Star. 2024-10-20 [2024-10-21]. 

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