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2024年賓夕法尼亞州聯邦參議員選舉

2024年宾夕法尼亚州联邦参议员选举于11月5日举行，旨在选举出代表宾夕法尼亚州的美国参议院议员。在此次选举中，现任民主党籍参议员小鲍勃·凯西败于共和党提名人戴维·麦考密克，未能赢得第四任期。[1]此次选举初选于2024年4月23日举行。[2]这场选举被视为民主党能否保住参议院多数党地位的关键之战。[3]

2024年宾夕法尼亚州联邦参议员选举
← 2018年 2024年11月5日 2030年 →
 
获提名人 戴维·麦考密克 小鲍勃·凯西
政党 共和黨 民主党
民選得票 3,398,495 3,384,180
得票率 48.82% 48.60%
选前联邦参议员

小鲍勃·凯西
民主党

當選联邦参议员

戴维·麦考密克
共和黨

背景

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宾夕法尼亚州在联邦层面被认为是摇摆州，尤其是因为在2020年总统大选中乔·拜登仅以约1.2个百分点的优势赢得该州。民主党目前控制着宾夕法尼亚州的联邦参议员以及州长职位，同时在该州联邦众议院代表团以及宾夕法尼亚州众议院占据多数。共和党上次于宾夕法尼亚州赢得联邦参议员席位是在2016年。[4][5][6][7]

现任参议员小鲍勃·凯西于2006年的蓝色浪潮中顺利当选，当时他以大约17个百分点的优势击败了时任参议员里克·桑托勒姆。在2012年他以9个百分点的优势再次当选（当时他领先奥巴马近4个百分点），并在2018年的蓝色浪潮中以13个百分点的优势再次当选。[8][9][10]

这场竞选因该州党派倾向接近均衡而被视为竞争激烈的选举，然而大多数民调显示凯西略微领先，是获胜的热门人选。[11]

民主党初选

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候选人

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提名人

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取消资格

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  • 威廉·帕克，应用程序开发人员[13][14]

各方背书

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小鲍勃·凯西
行政部门官员
  • 帕特里克·墨菲，美国陆军代理部长（2016年），前宾夕法尼亚州第八国会选区联邦众议员（2007-2011 年）[15]
联邦参议员
联邦众议员
州级官员
个人
  • 哈里·邓恩，前美国国会警察[19]
  • 克里斯蒂娜·津津·拉米雷斯 ，劳工组织者、下一代美国作战行动委员会主席（2021年至今）[20]
政党
组织
工会
报纸

筹款状况

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截至2024年4月15日竞选财务报告
候选人 筹款数 花销 手头资金
小鲍勃·凯西（D） $23,790,263 $12,391,802 $11,886,480
来源：联邦选举委员会[49]

选举结果

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民主党初选结果[50]
党派 候选人 得票数 百分比
民主党 小鲍勃·凯西（现任） 1,024,545 100.00%
合计 1,024,545 100.00%

共和党初选

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候选人

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提名人

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中途退选

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  • 布兰迪·托马塞蒂，前康尼斯托加镇财务主管兼秘书（以海选候选人身份参选）[52]

取消资格

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拒绝参选

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  • 凯西·巴内特，政治评论员，2020年宾夕法尼亚州第四国会选区候选人，2022年联邦参议院候选人[54]
  • 斯泰西·加里蒂，宾夕法尼亚州司库（2021年至今）[55] （参选连任）[56]
  • 道格·马斯特里亚诺，州参议院第33选区参议员（2019年至今），2022 年宾夕法尼亚州州长候选人[57] （背书麦考密克）[58]

各方背书

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戴维·麦考密克
行政部门官员
联邦官员
州内阁官员
  • 罗伯特·格里森，前宾夕法尼亚州州务卿（1985年-1987年）[63]
联邦参议员
联邦众议员
州参议员
  • 瑞安·奥门特，宾夕法尼亚州参议院第36选区议员（2015年至今）[70]
  • 道格·马斯特里亚诺，宾夕法尼亚州参议院第33选区议员（2019年至今）和2022年州长选举共和党候选人[58]
地方官员
  • 山姆·德马科，阿勒格尼县议员（2016年至今）兼阿勒格尼县共和党主席（2018年至今）[71]
政党官员
  • 安德鲁·赖利，宾夕法尼亚州共和党全国委员会委员（2020年至今）[63]
  • 克里斯汀·托雷蒂，宾夕法尼亚州共和党全国委员会委员（1997年至今）[63]
组织
政党
个人

筹款

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截至2024年4月15日竞选财务报告
候选人 筹款数 花销 手头现金
戴维·麦考密克（R） $11,052,879 $4,660,701 $6,399,998
来源：联邦选举委员会[49]

民调

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假定狀況下的民調
民调来源 调查
日期 		样本
大小[a] 		误差
幅度 		凯西·巴内特 道格·马斯特里亚诺 戴维·麦考密克 未决定
Public Policy Polling (D) 2023年3月9日至10日 616 (LV) – 11% 39% 21% 29%
– – 42% 28% 29%

选举结果

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共和党初选结果[50]
党派 候选人 得票数 百分比
共和党 戴维·麦考密克 878,320 100.00%
合计 878,320 100.00%

第三党候选人

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自由意志党大会

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提名人

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  • 约翰·托马斯，教育家[80]

大会上被淘汰

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  • 埃里克·格哈特，木匠，2022年联邦参议员选举提名人，2020年总统候选人[81]

绿党

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提名人

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  • 利拉·哈祖，店主[82]

宪法党

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提名人

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  • 伯纳德·塞尔克，卡车司机[82]

美国团结党

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取消资格

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  • 埃里克·梅西纳[83]

决选

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预测

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來源 評級 日期
库克政治报告[84] 摇摆不定 2024年10月21日
選舉內部[85] 倾向D 2023年11月9日
薩巴託的水晶球[86] 偏向D 2024年6月13日
DDHQ/国会山报[87] 偏向D 2024年6月8日
选举日报[88] 偏向D 2024年10月24日
CNalysis[89] 偏向D 2023年11月21日
真清晰政治[90] 摇摆不定 2024年8月5日
分裂投票[91] 偏向D 2024年10月23日
538[92] 偏向D 2024年10月28日

初选后各方背书

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小鲍勃·凯西（D）
行政部门官员
约翰·托马斯（L）
个人
  • 本·蔡斯洛夫特，《每日连线》基督教保守派评论员[96]
  • 比尔·考克斯，小罗伯特·肯尼迪的宾夕法尼亚州总统竞选主任[97]
戴维·麦考密克（R）
美国前行政官员
联邦参议员
个人

筹款状况

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截至2024年10月16日竞选财务报告
候选人 筹款数 花销 手头资金
小鲍勃·凯西（D） $52,879,737 $50,545,793 $2,821,961
戴维·麦考密克（R） $27,698,652[b] $26,030,736 $1,675,736
来源：联邦选举委员会[49]

辩论

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2024年宾夕法尼亚州联邦参议员选举辩论
编号 日期 主办方 主持人 链接 民主党 共和党
 P  参加   A  缺席   N  未受邀   I  受邀 W  退出
凯西 麦考密克
1 2024年10月3日 WHTM-TV 丹尼斯·欧文斯 YouTube P P
2 2024年10月15日 WPVI-TV 马特·奥唐纳、莎莉·威廉姆斯以及伊利亚·加西亚 C-SPAN P P

民调

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民意调查汇总
民意调查汇总来源 调查日期 更新日期 小鲍勃·凯西（D） 戴维·麦考密克（R） 未决定
[c] 		误差
FiveThirtyEight 截至2024年11月4日 2024年11月4日 48.2% 45.4% 6.4% 凯西+2.8%
RealClearPolitics 2024年10月21日至11月4日 2024年11月4日 48.1% 46.3% 5.6% 凯西+1.8%
270toWin 2024年10月24日至11月4日 2024年11月4日 48.4% 45.9% 5.7% 凯西+2.5%
TheHill/DDHQ 截至2024年11月4日 2024年11月4日 48.6% 46.6% 4.8% 凯西+2.0%
平均 48.3% 46.1% 5.6% 凯西+2.2%
民调来源 调查
日期 		样本
大小[a] 		误差
幅度 		小鲍勃·凯西（D） 戴维·麦考密克（R） 其他 未决定
AtlasIntel 2024年11月3日至4日 1,840 (LV) ± 2.0% 49% 47% 2% 2%
Survation 2024年11月1日至4日 929 (LV) – 49% 42% 3%[d] 6%
Research Co. 2024年11月2日至3日 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 48% 46% 2%[e] 4%
Patriot Polling (R) 2024年11月1日至3日 903 (RV) ± 3.0% 50% 49% – –
The Trafalgar Group (R) 2024年11月1日至3日 1,089 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 47% – 7%
InsiderAdvantage (R) 2024年11月1日至2日 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 47% 2% 3%
AtlasIntel 2024年11月1日至2日 2,049 (LV) ± 2.0% 49% 47% 3%[f] 2%
Emerson College[A] 2024年10月30日至11月2日 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 47% – 6%
NYT/Siena College[B] 2024年10月29日至11月2日 1,527 (LV) ± 2.9% 50% 45% – 4%
1,527 (RV) ± 2.8% 50% 45% – 6%
Mainstreet Research/FAU 2024年10月25日至11月2日 699 (LV) ± 3.6% 49% 44% 1%[g] 6%
726 (RV) ± 3.6% 48% 43% 2%[h] 7%
Morning Consult 2024年10月23日至11月1日 1,538 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 43% – 11%
OnMessage (R) 2024年10月29日至31日 800 (LV) – 46% 46% – 8%
Data for Progress (D) 2024年10月25日至31日 908 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 45% 2%[i] 4%
YouGov[C] 2024年10月25日至31日 947 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 44% – 6%
982 (RV) 50% 43% – 6%
ActiVote 2024年10月14日至31日 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 50.5% 49.5% – –
Muhlenberg College[D] 2024年10月27日至30日 460 (LV) ± 6.0% 49% 46% 3% 1%
Suffolk University[E] 2024年10月27日至30日 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 46% 2%[i] 2%
Marist College October 27–30, 2024 1,400 (LV) ± 3.4% 50% 48% 1%[j] 1%
1,558 (RV) ± 3.2% 50% 48% 1%[j] 1%
Echelon Insights October 27–30, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.5% 44% 47% 3%[k] 5%
AtlasIntel October 27–30, 2024 1,738 (LV) ± 2.0% 49% 46% 3%[f] 2%
The Washington Post October 26–30, 2024 1,204 (LV) ± 3.1% 49% 46% 2%[l] 3%
1,204 (RV) 49% 45% 3%[m] 3%
AtlasIntel 2024年10月25日至29日 1,229 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 47% 3%[f] 2%
Fox News October 24–28, 2024 1,057 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 48% – 1%
1,310 (RV) ± 2.5% 51% 46% 1% 2%
Quinnipiac University October 24–28, 2024 2,186 (LV) ± 2.1% 50% 47% 2%[n] 1%
Monmouth University October 24–28, 2024 824 (RV) ± 3.8% 45% 44% – 12%
CNN/SSRS October 23–28, 2024 819 (LV) ± 4.7% 48% 45% 6%[o] 1%
CBS News/YouGov October 22–28, 2024 1,249 (LV) ± 3.6% 48% 42% 3%[p] 7%
InsiderAdvantage (R) October 26–27, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 47% 2%[q] 4%
North Star Opinion Research (R)[F] October 22–26, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 42% 5%[r] 9%
UMass Lowell/YouGov October 16–23, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.7% 48% 42% 3%[s] 7%
Emerson College[G] October 21–22, 2024 860 (LV) ± 3.3% 47% 46% 2%[t] 6%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) October 18–22, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 46% 2%[u] 4%
Franklin & Marshall College October 9–20, 2024 583 (LV) ± 5.0% 49% 48% – 3%
794 (RV) ± 4.3% 48% 41% 5%[v] 6%
The Trafalgar Group (R) October 17–19, 2024 1,084 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 47% – 6%
AtlasIntel October 12–17, 2024 2,048 (LV) ± 2.0% 47% 48% 2%[w] 3%
The Bullfinch Group October 11–17, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 43% – 8%
YouGov[H] October 7–17, 2024 1,043 (LV) ± 3.44% 50% 42% – 8%
1,062 (RV) ± 3.4% 49% 42% – 9%
Morning Consult October 6–15, 2024 1,395 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 41% – 10%
NYT/Siena College[B] October 7–10, 2024 857 (LV) ± 3.8% 48% 44% – 8%
857 (RV) ± 3.7% 48% 43% – 9%
American Pulse Research & Polling October 2–10, 2024 1,193 (LV) ± 2.8% 48% 45% 2%[x] 5%
TIPP Insights (R)[F] October 7–9, 2024 803 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 43% 1%[y] 9%
1,079 (RV) 48% 40% 1%[z] 12%
UMass Lowell/YouGov October 2–9, 2024 800 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 39% 3%[aa] 10%
InsiderAdvantage (R) October 7–8, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 45% 2%[q] 6%
Emerson College[A] October 5–8, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 46% – 6%
Research Co. October 5–7, 2024 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 47% 44% 1%[ab] 8%
Quinnipiac University October 3–7, 2024 1,412 (LV) ± 2.6% 51% 43% 2%[ac] 5%
ActiVote September 6 – October 7, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 53% 47% – –
OnMessage Inc. (R)[ad] September 28–29, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 45% 44% 5%[ae] 7%
Patriot Polling (R) September 27–29, 2024 816 (RV) ± 3.0% 51% 48% – –
The Bullfinch Group[I] September 26–29, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.46% 48% 39% 12%[af] –
52% 42% 6%[ag] –
The Trafalgar Group (R) September 26–29, 2024 1,090 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 46% – 7%
Emerson College[G] September 27–28, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 45% – 8%
AtlasIntel September 20–25, 2024 1,775 (LV) ± 2.0% 47% 45% 1%[ah] 6%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[J] September 19–25, 2024 474 (LV) – 48% 42% 3%[ai] 6%
52% 45% – 3%
Fox News September 20–24, 2024 775 (LV) ± 3.5% 53% 44% 1%[aj] 2%
1,021 (RV) ± 3.0% 53% 44% 1%[aj] 2%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/
Impact Research (D)[K] 		September 17–24, 2024 816 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 45% – 6%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) September 16–22, 2024 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 48% 40% 1%[ak] 11%
RMG Research[L] September 18–20, 2024 783 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 44% 1%[aj] 5%
Remington Research Group (R)[M] September 16–20, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 45% – 7%
Muhlenberg College[D] September 16–19, 2024 450 (LV) ± 6.0% 48% 43% 5% 4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[N] September 16–19, 2024 1,086 (LV) ± 2.8% 47% 41% 2%[al] 10%
UMass Lowell/YouGov September 11–19, 2024 800 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 38% 3%[aa] 13%
Emerson College[A] September 15–18, 2024 880 (LV) ± 3.2% 47% 42% – 11%
MassINC Polling Group[O] September 12–18, 2024 800 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 42% 2%[am] 6%
Morning Consult September 9–18, 2024 1,756 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 40% – 11%
Marist College September 12–17, 2024 1,663 (RV) ± 2.0% 52% 46% 1%[j] 1%
1,476 (LV) ± 3.2% 52% 47% – 1%
Quinnipiac University September 12–16, 2024 1,331 (LV) ± 2.7% 52% 43% 1%[an] 3%
The Washington Post September 12–16, 2024 1,003 (LV) ± 3.6% 47% 46% 7%[ao] –
48% 48% 5%[ap] –
NYT/Siena College[B] September 11–16, 2024 1,082 (RV) ± 4.1% 48% 39% – 13%
1,082 (LV) ± 4.3% 49% 40% – 11%
InsiderAdvantage (R) September 14–15, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 44% 2%[q] 5%
Franklin & Marshall College September 4–15, 2024 890 (RV) ± 4.1% 48% 40% 3%[aq] 10%
Suffolk University[E] September 11–14, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 43% 2%[ar] 8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[N] September 6–9, 2024 801 (LV) ± 3.0% 44% 36% 5%[as] 14%
Morning Consult August 30 – September 8, 2024 1,910 (LV) ± 2.0% 49% 40% – 11%
co/efficient September 4–6, 2024 889 (LV) ± 3.29% 45% 36% – 19%
CBS News/YouGov September 3–6, 2024 1,076 (LV) ± 3.4% 48% 41% 3%[at] 8%
YouGov[C] August 23 – September 3, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.6% 52% 41% – 8%
The Trafalgar Group (R) August 28–30, 2024 1,082 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 45% – 8%
CNN/SRSS August 23–29, 2024 789 (LV) ± 4.7% 46% 46% 7%[au] 1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[N] August 25–28, 2024 1,071 (LV) ± 2.8% 44% 38% 4%[av] 14%
Emerson College[A] August 25–28, 2024 950 (LV) ± 3.1% 48% 44% – 8%
SoCal Strategies (R)[P] August 23, 2024 713 (LV) – 47% 41% – 12%
800 (RV) – 45% 40% – 15%
ActiVote August 3-23, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 55% 45% – –
Fabrizio Ward[Q] August 19–21, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 46% 43% – 11%
Cygnal (R) August 14–15, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.4% 46% 42% – 12%
42% 38% 7%[aw] 13%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[N] August 12–15, 2024 825 (LV) ± 3.2% 44% 36% 1%[ax] 17%
Emerson College August 13–14, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 44% – 8%
Quinnipiac University August 8–12, 2024 1,738 (LV) ± 2.4% 52% 44% 1%[ay] 3%
The Bullfinch Group[R] August 8–11, 2024 500 (RV) ± 4.38% 51% 39% – 10%
Franklin & Marshall College July 21 – August 11, 2024 920 (RV) ± 3.8% 48% 36% 3%[az] 13%
NYT/Siena College August 6–9, 2024 693 (RV) ± 4.0% 50% 36% – 14%
693 (LV) ± 4.2% 51% 37% – 11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[N] July 31 – August 3, 2024 743 (LV) ± 3.4% 45% 40% 2%[ba] 12%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[J] July 26 – August 2, 2024 411 (LV) – 53% 40% – 7%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) July 22–28, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 42% – 11%
Fox News July 22–24, 2024 1,034 (RV) ± 3.0% 55% 42% – 1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[N] July 22–24, 2024 851 (LV) ± 3.1% 46% 39% 4%[bb] 11%
Emerson College[S] July 22–23, 2024 850 (RV) ± 3.3% 48% 44% – 8%
SoCal Research (R)[T] July 20–21, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 50% 40% – 10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[U] July 17–18, 2024 624 (RV) ± 3.8% 50% 39% – 11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[N] July 16–18, 2024 688 (LV) – 44% 37% 3%[bc] 15%
Public Policy Polling (D)[V] July 11–12, 2024 537 (RV) – 47% 44% – 9%
YouGov[C] July 4–12, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.4% 50% 38% 1% 11%
889 (LV) – 51% 39% 1% 9%
NYT/Siena College July 9–11, 2024 872 (RV) ± 3.7% 50% 39% – 10%
872 (LV) ± 3.8% 50% 42% – 8%
Expedition Strategies[W] June 24 – July 8, 2024 284 (LV) – 48% 45% – 7%
Remington Research Group (R)[M] June 29 – July 1, 2024 673 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 48% – 4%
Cygnal (R) June 27–28, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 42% – 12%
The Bullfinch Group[X] June 14–19, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 48% 36% – 16%
Emerson College[A] June 13–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 41% – 12%
Marist College June 3–6, 2024 1,181 (RV) ± 3.6% 52% 46% – 2%
Mainstreet Research/FAU May 30–31, 2024 1,012 (RV) ± 3.1% 48% 40% 5% 7%
923 (LV) ± 3.1% 49% 42% 3% 6%
KAConsulting (R)[Y] May 15–19, 2024 600 (RV) – 47% 37% 4%[bd] 12%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[J] May 6–13, 2024 730 (LV) ± 3.6% 49% 41% – 10%
NYT/Siena College[B] April 28 – May 9, 2024 1,023 (RV) ± 3.6% 46% 41% – 13%
1,023 (LV) ± 3.6% 46% 44% – 10%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
Impact Research (D)[K] 		April 24–30, 2024 1,398 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 44% – 8%
Emerson College[A] April 25–29, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 42% – 12%
CBS News/YouGov April 19–25, 2024 1,306 (LV) ± 3.1% 46% 39% – 15%
Muhlenberg College April 15–25, 2024 417 (RV) ± 6.0% 45% 41% 5% 9%
The Bullfinch Group[R] March 29 – April 3, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 38% 9% 8%
National Public Affairs March 2024 759 (LV) ± 3.6% 32% 28% – 40%
Franklin & Marshall College March 20–31, 2024 431 (RV) ± 5.7% 46% 39% – 15%
The Bullfinch Group[X] March 22–26, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 47% 30% 8% 15%
Emerson College March 10–13, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 52% 48% – –
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) February 27 – March 7, 2024 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 48% 42% – 10%
Emerson College February 14–16, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 39% – 13%
Chism Strategies February 6–8, 2024 500 (RV) ± 5.0% 38% 37% – 25%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[Z] January 22–25, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 40% – 12%
Franklin & Marshall College January 17–28, 2023 1,006 (RV) ± 3.6% 47% 35% 4% 14%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) January 15–21, 2024 745 (LV) ± 3.7% 46% 42% 3% 9%
Quinnipiac University January 4–8, 2024 1,680 (RV) ± 2.4% 53% 43% 1%[aj] 2%
Common Ground (R)[X] December 8–12, 2023 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 42% 27% 13%[be] 20%
Change Research (D)[AA] December 3–7, 2023 2,532 (RV) ± 3.5% 44% 41% 0% 15%
Franklin & Marshall College October 11–22, 2023 873 (RV) ± 4.1% 46% 39% 4% 12%
Emerson College October 1–4, 2023 430 (RV) ± 4.7% 41% 33% 8% 18%
Quinnipiac University September 28 – October 2, 2023 1,725 (RV) ± 2.4% 50% 44% 2%[bf] 4%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) May 2–8, 2023 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 53% 41% 1% 5%
Cygnal (R) April 12–13, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 41% 0% 13%
Franklin & Marshall College March 27 – April 7, 2023 643 (RV) ± 6.6% 42% 35% – 23%
假定狀況下的民調
小鲍勃·凯西 vs 道格·马斯特里亚诺
民调来源 调查
日期 		样本
大小[a] 		误差
幅度 		小鲍勃·凯西（D） 道格·马斯特里亚诺（R） 未决定
Franklin & Marshall College March 27 – April 7, 2023 643 (RV) ± 3.7% 47% 31% 22%
Cygnal (R) April 12–13, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 39% 12%

选举结果

编辑
2024年賓夕法尼亞州聯邦參議員
党派 候选人 得票数 百分比
共和党 戴维·麦考密克 3,399,295 48.82%
民主党 小鲍勃·凯西（现任） 3,384,180 48.60%
自由党 约翰·托马斯 89,653 1.29%
绿党 利拉·哈祖 66,388 0.95%
宪法党 伯纳德·塞尔克 23,621 0.34%
总票数 6,963,137 100.0%

參見

编辑

注释

编辑
  1. ^ 1.0 1.1 1.2 示例：
    A – 全部成人
    RV – 登記選民
    LV – 可能的選民
    V – 不清楚
  2. ^ 其中麦考密克自筹资金4,263,800美元
  3. ^ 计算方法为取100%与其他所有候选人的成绩之差。
  4. ^ 托马斯（L）和哈祖（G）各占1%； 1%选“拒绝”
  5. ^ “其他候选人”占2%
  6. ^ 6.0 6.1 6.2 "Other" with 2%; "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%
  7. ^ “另一位候选人”占1%
  8. ^ “另一位候选人”占2%
  9. ^ 9.0 9.1 Thomas (L) and Hazou (G) with 1%
  10. ^ 10.0 10.1 10.2 "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  11. ^ 哈祖（G）2%； 托马斯（L）1%
  12. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; "Would not vote" with 1%
  13. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; "Would not vote" with 2%
  14. ^ "Refused" with 2%
  15. ^ "Other" with 4%; "Neither" with 2%
  16. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  17. ^ 17.0 17.1 17.2 "Other" with 2%
  18. ^ Thomas (L) with 2%; Hazou (G) and Selker (C) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  19. ^ Thomas with 2%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  20. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  21. ^ "Refuse" with 2%
  22. ^ "Other" (Thomas (L), Hazou (G) & Selker (C)) with 5%
  23. ^ "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  24. ^ "Another candidate" with 2%
  25. ^ "Other" with 1%
  26. ^ "Other" with 1%
  27. ^ 27.0 27.1 Hazou (G) and Thomas (L) with 1%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  28. ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%
  29. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
  30. ^ Poll sponsored by Sentinel Action Fund
  31. ^ "Other" with 5%
  32. ^ "None of the Above" with 9%; "Other" with 3%
  33. ^ Thomas (L) with 3%, Hazou (G) with 2%, and Selker (C) with 1%
  34. ^ "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%; "Other" with <1%
  35. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; "Would not vote" with 2%
  36. ^ 36.0 36.1 36.2 36.3 "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  37. ^ "Other" with 1%
  38. ^ Thomas (L), "Wouldn't vote if these are the candidates" with 1%
  39. ^ "Another candidate" and "Would not vote for senate" each with 1%; "Prefer not to say" with <1%
  40. ^ "Refused" with 1%
  41. ^ "No opinion/Skipped" with 4%; Thomas (L), Hazou (G), and "Would not vote" each with 1%
  42. ^ "No opinion/Skipped" with 3%; "Would not vote" each with 2%
  43. ^ "Other" with 3%
  44. ^ Thomas (L) with 1%; Selker (C) with 1%; Hazou (G) with <1%
  45. ^ "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 4%; Thomas (L) with 1%
  46. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  47. ^ "Other" with 4%; "Neither" with 3%
  48. ^ Thomas (L) with 1%; Hazou (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%; "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 1%
  49. ^ Thomas (L) with 3%; Hazou (G) with 2%; Messina (AS) and Selker (C) with 1%
  50. ^ Leila Hazou (G) with 1%, John Thomas (L), "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)", and Marty Selker (C) with 0%
  51. ^ "Refused" with 1%
  52. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  53. ^ John Thomas (L) and "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 1%; Leila Hazou (G) and Marty Selker (C) with 0%
  54. ^ John Thomas (L) with 2%; Leila Hazou (G) with 1%; Marty Selker (C) with 0%; "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 1%
  55. ^ Leila Hazou (G), John Thomas (L), and Marty Selker (C) with 1%
  56. ^ "Would not vote" with 3%; "Someone else" with 1%
  57. ^ "None of the above" with 8%; "Other" with 5%
  58. ^ "Someone else" & "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
党派
  1. ^ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 Poll sponsored by The Hill
  2. ^ 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 Poll sponsored by The Philadelphia Inquirer
  3. ^ 3.0 3.1 3.2 Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
  4. ^ 4.0 4.1 Poll sponsored by The Morning Call
  5. ^ 5.0 5.1 Poll sponsored by USA Today
  6. ^ 6.0 6.1 Poll sponsored by American Greatness
  7. ^ 7.0 7.1 Poll sponsored by RealClearPennsylvania
  8. ^ Poll sponsored by Rose Institute of State and Local Government
  9. ^ Poll sponsored by the Commonwealth Foundation
  10. ^ 10.0 10.1 10.2 Poll sponsored by The Cook Political Report
  11. ^ 11.0 11.1 Poll commissioned by AARP
  12. ^ Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
  13. ^ 13.0 13.1 Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republicans.
  14. ^ 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.6 Poll sponsored by The Daily Telegraph
  15. ^ Poll sponsored by Spotlight PA
  16. ^ Poll sponsored by On Point Politics and Red Eagle Politics, the latter of which supports the Republican Party.
  17. ^ Poll sponsored by the Pinpoint Policy Institute
  18. ^ 18.0 18.1 Poll sponsored by the Independent Center
  19. ^ Poll sponsored by The Hill and Nexstar
  20. ^ Poll sponsored by On Point Politics
  21. ^ Poll sponsored by Clean and Prosperous America PAC, a group that supports Democrats.
  22. ^ Poll sponsored by the Progress Action Fund, which is a sponsor of the Democratic Party.
  23. ^ Poll Sponsored by Progressive Policy Institute
  24. ^ 24.0 24.1 24.2 Poll sponsored by the Commonwealth Foundation, a conservative think tank
  25. ^ Poll conducted for Vapor Technology Association
  26. ^ Poll sponsored by McCormick's campaign
  27. ^ Poll sponsored by Future Majority, a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party.

参考文献

编辑
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  27. ^ 2024 – Feminist Majority PAC. feministmajoritypac.org. [2024-02-09]. （原始内容存档于2023-04-11）. 
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  73. ^ 73.0 73.1 CPAC Endorses David McCormick for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania. CPAC. [2024-11-09]. （原始内容存档于2023-10-18）. 
  74. ^ 2024 ENDORSED CANDIDATES. Log Cabin Republicans. [2024-04-03]. 
  75. ^ Pennsylvania Federation of College Republicans (@PACRFederation). PAFCR Endorses @DaveMcCormickPA in Crucial Race for United States Senate. Twitter. 2023-10-01 [2023-10-02]. 
  76. ^ Penn State College Republicans (@PennStateGOP). Penn State College Republicans Endorse Dave McCormick for United States Senate. Twitter. 2023-10-01 [2023-10-01]. （原始内容存档于2023-10-25） （美国英语）. 
  77. ^ RJC Endorses Pennsylvania US Senate Candidate Dave McCormick. Republican Jewish Coalition. [2024-02-16]. （原始内容存档于2024-02-16） （英语）. 
  78. ^ Mastrull, Diane. David McCormick secures Pa. GOP endorsement in his Senate run. The Philadelphia Inquirer. 2023-09-30 [2023-09-30] （英语）. 
  79. ^ 79.0 79.1 79.2 Lai, Stephanie. Ken Griffin, Charles Schwab to Host Fundraiser for David McCormick's Senate Bid. Bloomberg. 2023-12-14 [2024-04-17] （美国英语）. 
  80. ^ Deemer, Jacob. Armstrong County Man Launches U.S. Senate Campaign. exploreClarion. 2024-04-11 [2024-04-14]. （原始内容存档于2024-04-12）. 
  81. ^ Nominations for Statewide Offices. Libertarian Party of Pennsylvania. 2024-03-02 [2024-04-14]. 
  82. ^ 82.0 82.1 Third-party candidates file to run for president, US Senate in Pennsylvania. PennLIVE Patriot-News. The Associated Press. 2024-08-01 [2024-08-02]. （原始内容存档于2024-08-02）. 
  83. ^ PA Voter Services. www.pavoterservices.pa.gov. [2024-08-02]. （原始内容存档于2024-08-02）. 
  84. ^ 2024 Senate Race ratings. Cook Political Report. [2023-01-25]. （原始内容存档于2018-11-30） （英语）. 
  85. ^ Senate Ratings. Inside Elections. 2023-01-06 [2023-01-10]. （原始内容存档于2021-01-20）. 
  86. ^ 2024 Senate. Sabato's Crystal Ball. 2023-01-24 [2023-02-13]. （原始内容存档于2023-01-26）. 
  87. ^ 2024 Senate prediction map. elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. 2024-06-08 [2024-06-08]. （原始内容存档于2024-03-12）. 
  88. ^ Election Ratings. Elections Daily. 2023-08-01 [2023-08-02]. （原始内容存档于2023-11-03） （美国英语）. 
  89. ^ '24 Senate Forecast. CNalysis. [2023-11-21]. （原始内容存档于2024-03-02） （美国英语）. 
  90. ^ Battle for the Senate 2024. RealClearPolitics. [2024-08-05]. （原始内容存档于2024-08-13） （美国英语）. 
  91. ^ 2024 Senate Forecast. Split Ticket. 2023-05-25 [2024-10-23]. （原始内容存档于2024-10-09）. 
  92. ^ 2024 Election Forecast. FiveThirtyEight. 2024-06-11 [2024-10-23]. （原始内容存档于2024-11-03）. 
  93. ^ Fay, Laura. Biden to campaign with Sen. Bob Casey in Philadelphia area Tuesday night. CBS News. 2024-10-08 [2024-11-10]. （原始内容存档于2024-10-09）. 
  94. ^ Remarks by Vice President Harris at a Campaign Event. The White House. 2024-09-14 [2024-10-09]. （原始内容存档于2024-10-08）. 
  95. ^ Colson-Price, Patrick. Former president Obama campaigns for Kamala Harris, Tim Walz, Sen. Bob Casey in Pittsburgh. USA Today. 2024-10-10 [2024-10-15]. 
  96. ^ @BenZeisloft. I am an evangelical voter in Pennsylvania. Donald Trump could have had my vote had he not started to support most kinds of abortion and vowed to fund IVF with my tax dollars. I am casting my vote for @DustyDeevers as President and for @BradleyWPierce as Vice President. I know that both men fear the Lord and would establish justice if they were elected. I voted for some Republicans in state and local races, some third-party candidates like @JohnThomasPA who have vowed to protect the preborn, and wrote in qualified Christian men when there were no other options. None of this was necessary. I would have voted for Donald Trump or any other Republican candidate who vowed to protect the preborn and end mass child sacrifice in our nation. If the Republican Party wants evangelical votes, they cannot shirk evangelical policy priorities, and most importantly they cannot shirk their duty to obey and honor the Triune God and govern in their offices with justice and righteousness. I will not reward betrayal with my vote. (推文) –通过Twitter.  Missing or empty |date= (help)
  97. ^ Libertarian US Senate candidate receives crucial endorsement. Leader Times. 2024-10-03 [2024-10-10]. 
  98. ^ Suter, Tara. Nikki Haley tells Pennsylvania voters: 'Take the emotion out' of vote. The Hill. 2024-10-31 [2024-11-03] （英语）. 
  99. ^ Mutnick, Ally. John Thune doles out the money as he runs for Senate GOP leader. Politico. 2024-10-15 [2024-10-17] （英语）. 
  100. ^ Phox, Jason. McCormick joins Musk at Pittsburgh-area town hall. Pennsylvania Capital-Star. 2024-10-20 [2024-10-21]. 

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