薩根標準

薩根標準（英語：Sagan standard）指的是一句格言，認為「超凡主張須有超凡證據」（Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence，簡稱ECREE）^[1]。

理據

不平凡主張指的是不為既有的證據，也就是「平凡」證據所支持的主張。這類主張必須有新觀測到的證據來支持，不然就是要重新詮釋既有證據，而這樣做很「超凡」。

有學者認為這格言是改寫自拉普拉斯的格言（英語：Laplace's Principle），該格言認為「超凡主張提出的證據必須與其奇異度成正比」。^{[註 1]}

有學者認為超凡主張須有超凡證據是科學思考、批判思考和理性思考的一項重要原則^[2]^[3]。

歷史

這句格言在1980年電視節目Cosmos因卡爾·薩根而變得普及。^[4]有兩篇1978年的文章也都用了一樣的句子，其中一篇刊載在《美國新聞與世界報道》，另一篇則由科內如‧羅摩奎師那‧勞歐（英語：Koneru Ramakrishna Rao）所撰寫並刊在《超心理學期刊》（Journal of parapsychology），兩篇皆受之後成為《科學》期刊編輯的物理學家菲力普·艾貝爾森所引用。^[5]^[6]

一些人指出，在更早以前，就已有非常類似但表達方式不同的說法。皮埃爾-西蒙·拉普拉斯就曾說過「不尋常主張的證據量必須與其不尋常度成比例。」^[7]^[8]1808年，托馬斯·傑斐遜曾說：「每天有成千上萬我們無法解釋的現象出現，但對於尚待得知的自然法則間缺乏類同的那些提出的可能真相，驗證其真偽所需的證據，與驗證難度成比例。」^{[註 2]}^[9]在1978年的《論非凡：嘗試澄清》（On the Extraordinary: An Attempt at Clarification）一文中，社會學家馬塞羅·突魯西（Marcello Truzzi）說：「非凡主張需要非凡證明。」^{[註 3]}^[10]

在2004年，腳踏車選手藍斯·阿姆斯壯曾以「超凡主張要有超凡證據」（Extraordinary allegations require extraordinary evidence）這段話回應記者大衛·華許提出他使用禁藥的傳聞。^[11]^{[註 4]}^[12]阿姆斯壯最終在2013年坦承使用禁藥。^[13]

對此格言的批判

這句格言提升了對於非既有共識主張的證據標準，進而表現出對「正統」顯著的支持，且對何謂「超凡證據」的判斷，可以是主觀且模稜兩可，因此受到一些批評。大衛・戴明（David Deming）寫道說：「科學不考慮兩類證據。誤用『非凡主張要有非凡證據』不可免會導致減慢以科學建立可信知識的目標，應避免因而壓抑創新及保持正統的狀況。」^{[註 5]}^[14]

參見

註釋

^ 原文：the weight of evidence for an extraordinary claim must be proportioned to its strangeness.
^ 原文：A thousand phenomena present themselves daily which we cannot explain, but where facts are suggested, bearing no analogy with the laws of nature as yet known to us, their verity needs proofs proportioned to their difficulty.
^ 原文：an extraordinary claim requires extraordinary proof.
^ 阿姆斯壯之後被問說：「在你身上到底有些什麼，使得平常的證據不足以把你搞倒？對於殺人犯，我們不尋求非凡的證明，我們指尋求證明，但你說這些證明必須是非凡的，為什麼？」，原文："What is it about you that makes ordinary proof insufficient to bring you down? For murderers, we're not looking for extraordinary proof, we're looking for proof. But you're saying it must be extraordinary. Why?".
^ 原文：Science does not contemplate two types of evidence. The misuse of ECREE ["extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence"] to suppress innovation and maintain orthodoxy should be avoided as it must inevitably retard the scientific goal of establishing reliable knowledge.

參考資料

^ Marc Kaufman, First Contact: Scientific Breakthroughs in the Hunt for Life Beyond Earth, Simon and Schuster, p. 124.
^ Tressoldi, Patrizio E. Extraordinary Claims Require Extraordinary Evidence: The Case of Non-Local Perception, a Classical and Bayesian Review of Evidences. Frontiers in Psychology. 2011, 2 (117): 117. PMC 3114207  . PMID 21713069. doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2011.00117  .
^ Smith, Jonathan C. Pseudoscience and Extraordinary Claims of the Paranormal: A Critical Thinker's Toolkit. John Wiley & Sons. 2011. ISBN 978-1444358940.
^ Sagan, Carl. Encyclopaedia Galactica. Cosmos. 第12集. 01:24 記錄於. December 14, 1980. PBS.
^ A Stepchild of Science Starts to Win Friends. U.S. News & World Report. 1978-07-31: 41–42 [2017-10-14]. （原始內容存檔於2017-10-15）. Philip H. Abelson, editor of the authoritative journal Science, agrees that parapsychological research has improved markedly, but he is dubious about the results. "These extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence," he contends.
^ Rao, K.R., 1978, Psi: Its place in nature. Journal of Parapsychology vol 42.
^ Flournoy, Théodore. Des Indes à la planète Mars: étude sur un cas de somnambulisme avec glossolalie. Slatkine. 1899: 344–345 [2019-01-17]. （原始內容存檔於2020-10-02）.
^ Flournoy, Théodore. From India to the Planet Mars: A Study of a Case of Somnambulism. Daniel D. Vermilye, trans. Cosimo, Inc. 2007: 369–370 [2019-01-17]. ISBN 9781602063570. （原始內容存檔於2017-02-22）.
^ Berkes, Anna. Who is the liar now?. monticello.org. Thomas Jefferson Foundation. 2008-11-14 [2016-10-29]. （原始內容存檔於2016-10-30）. Letter to Daniel Salmon on 15 February 1808 discusing the nature and origin of meteorites. U.S. Library of Congress image （頁面存檔備份，存於互聯網檔案館）
^ Marcello Truzzi, "On the Extraordinary: An Attempt at Clarification （頁面存檔備份，存於互聯網檔案館）", Zetetic Scholar（英語：Zetetic Scholar）, Vol. 1, No. 1, p. 11, 1978.
^ Fotheringham, William. Lance Armstrong shying away from a fight is an extraordinary moment - William Fotheringham. 2012-08-24 [2019-01-17]. （原始內容存檔於2018-11-07） –透過www.theguardian.com.
^ Chappell, Matt. The State Of Doping In Sport In 2015, By David Walsh. AskMen. [2019-01-18]. （原始內容存檔於2019-01-19）.
^ CNN, By Chelsea J. Carter. Lance Armstrong facing lifetime ban, loss of titles. CNN. [2019-01-18]. （原始內容存檔於2019-01-19）.
^ Deming, D. Philosophia (2016) 44: 1319. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11406-016-9779-7

[2] 原文：the weight of evidence for an extraordinary claim must be proportioned to its strangeness.

[10] 原文：A thousand phenomena present themselves daily which we cannot explain, but where facts are suggested, bearing no analogy with the laws of nature as yet known to us, their verity needs proofs proportioned to their difficulty.

[12] 原文：an extraordinary claim requires extraordinary proof.

[15] 阿姆斯壯之後被問說：「在你身上到底有些什麼，使得平常的證據不足以把你搞倒？對於殺人犯，我們不尋求非凡的證明，我們指尋求證明，但你說這些證明必須是非凡的，為什麼？」，原文："What is it about you that makes ordinary proof insufficient to bring you down? For murderers, we're not looking for extraordinary proof, we're looking for proof. But you're saying it must be extraordinary. Why?".

[18] 原文：Science does not contemplate two types of evidence. The misuse of ECREE ["extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence"] to suppress innovation and maintain orthodoxy should be avoided as it must inevitably retard the scientific goal of establishing reliable knowledge.

[1] Marc Kaufman, First Contact: Scientific Breakthroughs in the Hunt for Life Beyond Earth, Simon and Schuster, p. 124.

[sstandard-3] Tressoldi, Patrizio E. Extraordinary Claims Require Extraordinary Evidence: The Case of Non-Local Perception, a Classical and Bayesian Review of Evidences. Frontiers in Psychology. 2011, 2 (117): 117. PMC 3114207  . PMID 21713069. doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2011.00117  .

[4] Smith, Jonathan C. Pseudoscience and Extraordinary Claims of the Paranormal: A Critical Thinker's Toolkit. John Wiley & Sons. 2011. ISBN 978-1444358940.

[5] Sagan, Carl. Encyclopaedia Galactica. Cosmos. 第12集. 01:24 記錄於. December 14, 1980. PBS.

[usnews78-6] A Stepchild of Science Starts to Win Friends. U.S. News & World Report. 1978-07-31: 41–42 [2017-10-14]. （原始內容存檔於2017-10-15）. Philip H. Abelson, editor of the authoritative journal Science, agrees that parapsychological research has improved markedly, but he is dubious about the results. "These extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence," he contends.

[7] Rao, K.R., 1978, Psi: Its place in nature. Journal of Parapsychology vol 42.

[8] Flournoy, Théodore. Des Indes à la planète Mars: étude sur un cas de somnambulisme avec glossolalie. Slatkine. 1899: 344–345 [2019-01-17]. （原始內容存檔於2020-10-02）.

[9] Flournoy, Théodore. From India to the Planet Mars: A Study of a Case of Somnambulism. Daniel D. Vermilye, trans. Cosimo, Inc. 2007: 369–370 [2019-01-17]. ISBN 9781602063570. （原始內容存檔於2017-02-22）.

[11] Berkes, Anna. Who is the liar now?. monticello.org. Thomas Jefferson Foundation. 2008-11-14 [2016-10-29]. （原始內容存檔於2016-10-30）. Letter to Daniel Salmon on 15 February 1808 discusing the nature and origin of meteorites. U.S. Library of Congress image （頁面存檔備份，存於互聯網檔案館）

[13] Marcello Truzzi, "On the Extraordinary: An Attempt at Clarification （頁面存檔備份，存於互聯網檔案館）", Zetetic Scholar（英語：Zetetic Scholar）, Vol. 1, No. 1, p. 11, 1978.

[14] Fotheringham, William. Lance Armstrong shying away from a fight is an extraordinary moment - William Fotheringham. 2012-08-24 [2019-01-17]. （原始內容存檔於2018-11-07） –透過www.theguardian.com.

[16] Chappell, Matt. The State Of Doping In Sport In 2015, By David Walsh. AskMen. [2019-01-18]. （原始內容存檔於2019-01-19）.

[17] CNN, By Chelsea J. Carter. Lance Armstrong facing lifetime ban, loss of titles. CNN. [2019-01-18]. （原始內容存檔於2019-01-19）.

[19] Deming, D. Philosophia (2016) 44: 1319. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11406-016-9779-7

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