土耳其气候变迁
由于土耳其气候逐年变暖,干旱与热浪成为土耳其的主要灾害。[3][4]该国平均气温已经上升超过1.5 °C(2.7 °F),[5][1]极端气候现象亦增多。[6]
目前土耳其的温室气体排放已经占全球总排量的1%以上,[7]而能源政策包括了补贴化石天然气[8]与煤炭[9]。自2010年代末以来,该国人均年排放量约为6.5吨,[10]与全球平均水平相当。[11]然而,该国的历史排放量还不到全球总排放量的1%。[12]
温室气体排放
编辑土耳其每年所排放的六亿吨温室气体中,[15]煤炭、汽车与货车排放的温室气体就占了三分之一以上,其中绝大部分乃二氧化碳,这也是土耳其气候出现变迁的原因之一。其中全国的燃煤发电站排放的二氧化碳最多,其他来源则为使用汽车或柴油的公路车辆。化石天然气为仅次于煤炭[16]与石油的第三大污染源,土耳其的燃气发电站、家庭与工作场所都在燃烧化石天然气。大量的甲烷由牲畜产出;土耳其农业所产出的温室气体有一半来自于乳牛。
据经济学家称,土耳其温室气体排放的主要原因是对燃煤发电站的补贴,[17]:18以及缺乏炭污染价格。[18]:1据《2022年国家能源计划》预测,到了2030年将会有1.7GW的地方煤电进入电网。[19](p. 15)即便不存在碳价格,土耳其的可再生能源电力也比煤碳和天然气发电便宜,[20]在没有补贴的情况下,燃煤发电厂家会逐个倒闭。土耳其清洁空气权平台认为应该对空气中的悬浮粒子设定法律限制,其中大部分悬浮粒子来自于汽车或货车的尾气。城市中的低排放区既能减少当地的空气污染,又能减少二氧化碳排放。
土耳其的温室气体排放量占目前全球温室气体排放量的1.3%。[21]自2010年代末以来,人均年排放量约为6.5吨,[22]与全球平均水平相当。[23]虽然该国报告了温室气体总量,但一些像是汽车和货车的比例等一些细节却并未公布。此外,土耳其并未向《联合国气候变化框架公约》提交其长期战略。[24]
土耳其政府支持林地复育、电动汽车制造、低碳发电,其目标为在2053年实现净零排放。然而它并未进一步进行逐步淘汰煤碳的计划,并且它为限制气候变迁的《巴黎协定》所做出的国家自主贡献并非减少碳排量,而乃在2030年增加30%以上的排放量。[25]除非土耳其自行改变气候与能源政策,否则它将无法在2035年实现净零目标,[26]水泥与电力等高碳产品将不额不支付碳关税。[27]2023年,关于气候法草案的讯息被误传,该草案旨在通过启动碳排放交易,并将关税资金留在国内。[28]对自然环境的影响
编辑青铜时代曾有两次较重要的气候变化时期。[31]根据海峡大学气候变化与政策研究中心称,由土耳其人为造成的气候变迁可以追溯至1970年代。[32]耦合模型比对计画对此进行了良好的模拟。[33]气候变迁影响降雨分布的一个例子是:哈德里环流圈(赤道附近的环流区域)的下沉边缘可能会向土耳其北部移动,而土耳其南部边界在北纬36度左右,并可能导致该国南部的降雨量降低。[34]
温度与天气变化
编辑截至2020年[update],已知有纪录以来最炎热的年份为2010年,其次是第二热2018年以及第三热的2020年。[35]根据预测,土耳其受到气候的影响将会比其他国家更加严重,[36][37]然而该国各地区受到的影响之差异也很大。[38]
土耳其的极端降雨量明显增加,[39]天气也变得越来越极端。[6]在2021年,该国南部发生山火,北部则发生洪水。受到气候变迁的影响,[40][41]土耳其的山火次数有所增加,[42]并且据预测道马摩拉地区的风速也会增加。[34]不过,北部的降雨量也因为降雨取代了多数降雪而增加,[34]预测洪水也会因此增多。[43]从季节上来看,冬季的降雨量可能会增加,但是春季与秋季的降雨量会减少约50%。[35]此外至少在该国的某些地方,[44]热浪与干旱也正在加剧。[45][46][47]
海平面上升
编辑据估计,爱琴海在21世纪初每年上升四毫米。[48]如若海平面上升一公尺,就会约20多万人生活在危险之中。[49]构造抬升将导致萨姆松到阿拉尼亚之间的海平面上升程度会减少,然而几条大河的三角洲仍会下沉。[50]伊斯坦堡或将面临海平面上升的风险,[51]比如或将面临洪水泛滥威胁的卡德柯伊站。[43]
水资源
编辑气候变迁将使一些地区的降雨量减少,降雨规律性亦降低,让水力发电厂带来不少的压力。[52]在1979到2019年期间,该国年降雨量从60厘米以上波动到45厘米以下,[52]年均气温波动四度。[52]
土耳其如今已经是水资源短缺的国家,因为每人每年的用水量已经仅约1500立方公尺而已,再加上日后的人口增长与气候变迁,预计到2070年代时,该国将极可能面临缺水(每人每年不足1000平方公尺)的窘境。[34]预计北部地区的流域水资源变化不大,但是南部流域的水资源将大幅减少。[34]位于土耳其中部的科尼亚也很容易被其影响。[53]
土耳其生产牛肉所需之水量几乎是全球平均水平的一半,[54](p. 109)尽管气候变迁导致土耳其容易出现干旱,[55][44]但新生小牛的生产却仍可得到补贴。[56]
生态系统
编辑在土耳其沿海地区,受影响较大的土地类型包含永久性湿地、耕地与草地。[52]据气候模型预测,地中海地区的极端天气事件或将增加。[37]:151土耳其的冰川正在消退:[57]该国现存最大的冰川乃位于亚拉拉特山的冰川,他们预计将在2065年之际消失殆尽,[58]其消融速度远远快于世界上其他地方的高山冰川,[30]因为根据预测,土耳其南部的气候将会变得更加炎热,要将该国目前的南部森林地区予以保留的措施可能会非常困难。[34]土耳其在2020年的山火比往年还多,预计土壤侵蚀会更加严重。[59]海面温度上升是造成马尔马拉海出现海鼻涕的原因之一,[60]预计将会进一步改变土耳其海域的海洋生物。[61]此外黑海的海面温度也上升了两度,[62]有人因此担心熊类将不会冬眠。[63]
对人类的影响
编辑经济影响
编辑2020年的洪灾已经造成数十亿土耳其里拉(数亿美元)的损失。[64]环境部长穆拉特·库鲁姆于2021年估计,气候变迁造成的灾害损失将高达数十亿土耳其里拉(数亿美元)。[65]根据2019年的一项研究预测,如果大气中的温室气体浓度保持在代表性浓度路径为2.6的水平,那么到2100年之时,人均国内生产总值的损失将会低于1%。[66]世界银行估计过停止净碳排放的成本和效益,但也建议政府当局进行更详尽的规划。[67]对于2022年对碳揭露专案做出回应的公司来说,其业务或将面临的主要气候变迁风险为碳定价,比如欧盟碳边境调整机制。[68](p. 10)
农业
编辑除非全球的排放量大幅减少,否则土耳其农业(比如小麦)[70][71]预计将在2030年代末之后受到严重影响,尤其是依靠雨水灌溉的农业区。[72]许多干旱与半干旱地区将面临沙漠化风险。[73]由于东南安纳托利亚计划采用“旧式”灌溉技术,许多水源或将因蒸发而流失,增加当地严重缺水的风险。[74]
据预测,气候变迁对农业造成的损失将大幅增加,[75][72]比如一些植物将因为“假春”现象而发芽、开花,并且很快就遭寒流侵袭。[35]因气候变迁导致的提早开花现象之增加,可能会给果树等农作物带来问题,[76]位于色雷斯的葡萄园也将受到影响。[77]农业生产的大幅下降会传导到整个国家经济,并导致国民福利降低。[78]有建议称应该与欧盟和阿联开展更多的农业技术合作。[79]
水力发电
编辑据预测,土耳其的降水量[80]与水力发电量将会减少,[81]位于底格里斯河-幼发拉底河流域上的土耳其水坝正在减少跨境流量,助长了伊拉克因气候变迁导致的干旱。[82]为了节约部分水力发电,政府正在水电厂附近增设太阳能发电。[83]
渔业与水殖产业
编辑土耳其媒体对于海洋暖化与外来种入侵(比如来自鸿海的物种)之相关报导较少。黑海渔业对气候变迁的影响十分敏感,[85]而根据土耳其海洋研究基金会的说法,土耳其所有的海域都会受到影响。[86][87]凡湖也因气候变迁而正在干涸。[88]
观光业
编辑对一些人来说,土耳其某些地方在夏季的观光活动可能会变得过于炎热,比如在学校的暑假期间,安塔利亚对一些游客来说可能会过于炎热。[89]在托鲁斯山脉中部与黑海东部山区开发滑雪场可能已然泡汤。[90]
医疗影响
编辑气候变迁(比如由于热浪的增加)可能会影响到土耳其人的健康,[91][92]特别是老者、慢性病患者与儿童。[93]2021年,土耳其爆发该国建国以来最严重的山火,造成数人死亡,数百人受伤,同时干旱也带来蚊虫传播疾病的风险。[94]此外在1970到2014年期间,土耳其有1350人死于洪灾,并约有两百万人受到洪灾的影响。[37]
移民影响
编辑目前土耳其境内共有三百多万的叙利亚内战难民。[95]不过尽管中东地区的气候变迁使得叙利亚爆发严重干旱(比如2007至08年在叙利亚东北的干旱)的可能性增加,[96]但学术界认为这不太可能是叙利亚内战爆发的起因。[97]据联合国开发计划署称,降雨量的减少正在加剧土耳其国内巨大的社会与地区差距,东南各省与全国其他地区的差距也正在扩大。[98]
住房影响
编辑据环保人士称,新建公路与混凝土建筑阻碍了土地对洪水的吸收。[99]由于气温过高,现有建筑将需要更多的制冷能源。[100]
缓解
编辑土耳其的温室气体排放量与《巴黎协定》将气温升幅限制在远低于2 °C的目标不符。据气候行动追踪系统称,如果所有政府的目标都跟土耳其一样的话,全球气温将在本世纪末升温超过4 °C。[101]
截至2023年,土耳其尚未制定长期气候变迁缓解战略。[102](p. 116)联合国环境署表示,该国需要更快实现脱碳,并且到2030年,每人每年的二氧化碳排放量需要减少一半以上,约2至2.5吨CO2e。[103]:XXV土耳其当局本该完成对长期(2030至2050年)政策之审查,[104]:42[注 1]并在2023年以前发布新的国家气候变迁行动计划,包含具体部门的目标与监测机制等等。[107]然而当局并没有这样做。[108]土耳其认为自己身为一个开发中国家,它应该不受净减排目标的限制,但其他国家并不同意这个说法。[107]:59
除非土耳其的能源政策有所改变,否则预计2020年代,欧盟人均排放量将会比土耳其低。[103]:22由于欧盟是土耳其的主要贸易伙伴,该国和欧洲绿色协议中的目标相比下,或将对协助土耳其企业避开欧盟未来对钢铁、水泥等出口产品征收环保关税之部分发挥重要作用。[109][110]公共与私营部门对此讨论了“欧洲绿色协议”,[111]土耳其贸易部则针对其碳边境调整机制发布一项行动计划。[112]因应
编辑土耳其在2012年发布了适应气候变迁的国家战略与行动方针,[113]然而截止至2023年,该国尚未向《联合国气候变化纲要公约》递交国家适应计划。[114]农业和林业部正对此研究气候变迁造成的影响,并策画相关适应战略。[115]相关适应性报告已于2021年提交。[116]
环境、都市化和气候变迁部负责协调土耳其应对气候变迁的活动。[113]前农业部长贝克尔·帕克德米尔利于2023年表示,土耳其正在对灌溉进行现代化改造,并改种耐旱型作物。[117]
气候变迁在第十二个发展计划中被提及。[118](pp. 217-220)有人对此建议对城市绿地进行旱地景观设计,[119]伊斯坦堡则制定了气候变迁行动计划。[120]2023年的一项研究建议,地方气候变迁计划应更好地与地方空间规划相结合。[121]尽管政府在2020年公布气候变迁法草案,但是截至2024年[update],该法仍未通过。[122]
社会与文化
编辑相关行动
编辑伊斯兰环保主义者与伊斯兰学者皆引用《古兰经》来支持其环保主义。[123]2015年,伊斯兰领导人在伊斯坦堡敦促全球16亿穆斯林协助战胜气候变迁。[124][125]
2020年,第一夫人埃米内·埃尔多安曾说道:“我们迈出的每一步错误都可能会给后代子孙带来灾难”。[126]2019年,一些土耳其学童加入了“气候大罢课”,[127]反抗灭绝组织土耳其分部对于土耳其批准《巴黎协定》举行示威。[128]
清愿与诉讼
编辑环保活动家格蕾塔·通贝里与另外15位儿童在2019年提交了一份请愿书,抗议阿根廷、巴西、法国、德国与土耳其在气候变迁上缺乏行动,[129][130]称除了其他危险外,更致命的热浪将在未来影响他们和其他儿童。[131]:29该请愿书根据《儿童权利公约》对这五个国家提出质疑:[132]“与土耳其排放速度相当的排放量将导致超过4°C 的升温”。[131]:66如果请愿成功,她们将要求各国对此做出回应,然而该建议并不具任何法律约束力。[133][134]2020年,一群葡萄牙儿童曾在欧洲人权法院起诉土耳其和其他32个国家。[135]
《土耳其宪法》第56条规定:“人人有权在健康与平衡的环境中生活。改善自然环境、保护环境健康与防止环境污染乃国家与公民应履行的义务。”目前土耳其已经批准《巴黎协定》,并表示到2053年就将实现温室气体净零排放,但政府并没有继而逐步淘汰煤炭的计划。[136]截止至2023年,土耳其已有三件气候诉讼案件。[137]
在2020年与2021年,有16个非营利组织曾提出过诉讼,要求总统关闭37个大型燃煤发电厂和六百多个运行中的煤矿。[138][139]除了关于气候变迁的论点外,原告还称癌症的病例正在增加,新冠肺炎也因空气污染而更加恶化。[140]最终安卡拉第十一号行政法院皆以各种理由驳回该诉讼。[141]在2022年,关于马尔马拉湖干涸一案也被提出诉讼。[142]
2023年有三位年轻的气候活动家提出诉讼,控告国家确立的自主贡献并不足。[143][144]他们对于艾尔段总统和环境、都市化和气候变迁部提出诉讼的原因是因为其自主贡献并没有试图减少温室气体排放量,并指责其没有有效的能源气候行动计划。他们声称,这些都侵犯了宪法规定中的人权。(如宪法中的环境条款)[145]
媒体与艺术
编辑1990年代,独立电台Açık Radyo播出一些关于气候变迁的首批媒体报导,其创始人奥马尔·马德拉强调了“气候变迁斗争三Y”:“Yerel(在地)、Yatay(水准)、Yavaş(渐进且非暴力)”。[146]气候新闻(İklim Haber)也以土耳其语和英语报导气候变迁的问题。[147][148]然大众媒体很少报导关于煤电对气候的影响,[147]几乎所有土耳其媒体所有者都与化石燃料存在经济利益关系。[149]:17,20媒体只会在发生极端气候事件时才会报导气候变迁,关于专家意见与民间社会观点并不足。[150]:28一些像是Ember的智库同时受到了工业界与环保人士的尊重。[147]Ember的区域负责人乌福克·阿尔帕斯兰称,读者们通常对于太阳能可以提高能源独立性和降低进口成本之部分感到兴趣,但对于气候方面的益处兴趣不大。[147]艺术正是提高人们对气候变迁的认识的机会(尽管有些艺术是由其环境政策受到批评的公司所赞助[147]),[151]教育方面则得到了欧盟的支持。[152][153]此外一些诸如《Yeşil Gazete》、《Kaldıraç》等等的小型媒体杂志报导了一些反对露天采煤(比如阿克贝伦森林)的抗议活动。[147]
公众认知
编辑一些个人应对气候变迁的行动并没有得到正确的理解(在一项针对小学老师的调查中,许多老师误将减少化妆品使用作为优先选项),一些政府在应对气候变迁缓解方面的选择也并未得到正确理解(在同一项调查中,只有少数老师能正确地将抑制化石燃料的使用作为优先事项)。[154]一些人错误地将阿库尤核电站可能造成的海水升温与气候变迁有关,[38]很少人知道土耳其的地热发电可能会排放大量二氧化碳。[155]
《İklim Haber》(气候新闻)与康达研究与谘询公司在2018年发现,超过四分之三的气候变迁公众舆论认为极端天气有所增加。[156]根据《İklim Haber》与康达研究在2020年合作编写的另一份土耳其语最新报告显示,有51.5%的公众舆论认为气候危机比新冠疫情的威胁更大,[157]并有71.4%的公众舆论承认当前的气候危机是人为造成的。[157]一些建筑公司被指责用“漂绿”的手法,在未获得任何绿建筑证书的情况下,将自己的建筑宣传为绿建筑。[158]
2019年,E3G对六个“一带一路”倡议国(包括土耳其)进行的民意调查中,太阳能是最受欢迎的能源,煤炭则是最不受欢迎的能源。[159]当年有24座土耳其城市承诺会实现《巴黎协定》的目标,[160]联合国开发计划署在2020年与土耳其篮球协会合作,旨在提高公众应对气候变迁的认知。[161]2020年的一项研究发现,公众对于潜在碳税的支持程度并不取决于收益是否用于减缓、适应气候变迁。[162]2023年,土耳其提出一项法律草案,其中包括提供公共讯息与在教学中增加气候变迁的内容。[13]
国际合作
编辑据能源和自然资源部称,气候变迁是全球最大的问题之一。[163]在2013到16年期间,土耳其为多边气候基金的第五大接受国,其透过清洁技术基金和全球环境基金等渠道获得2.31亿美元。[164]
2021年,土耳其批准了《巴黎协定》,所以议会成员都投下赞成票。[165]在此以前,它跟邻国伊朗一样都是最后几个尚未批准该协议的国家;它也是二十国集团中最晚批准该协议的国家。根据2020年二十国集团现任主席国的说法,该国推迟批准的原因为其“对温室气体排放的历史责任微不足道(连1%都不到)”。土耳其并非《跨境环境影响评估公约》缔约国。[166]2021年,土耳其批准了《基加利修正案》,藉以减少氢氟烃化合物的生产和使用,[167]该国也不存在碳税与排放权交易计划,因此其不使用碳捕集与封存,这在经济上会不可行。[168]亚美尼亚称土耳其的水坝建设与气候变迁相结合,减少了阿拉斯河。[169]
土耳其在2023年派出一千多名代表参加联合国气候变迁大会,并加入水泥生产去碳化等各种倡议。然而,土耳其也因为没有投票化石燃料淘汰而受到批评,萨班哲大学伊斯坦堡政策研究中心的乌米特·萨欣对此表示,鉴于土耳其是化石燃料进口国,这对经济有利。[170]
另见
编辑注释
编辑参考来源
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外部链接
编辑- Documents submitted to the UNFCCC by Turkey (页面存档备份,存于互联网档案馆)
- Istanbul International Centre for Energy and Climate (页面存档备份,存于互联网档案馆)
- Climate Change in Turkey:Istanbul Policy Center: Sabanci University (页面存档备份,存于互联网档案馆)
- İklim Haber (Climate News) (页面存档备份,存于互联网档案馆) – Newspaper focusing on climate change
- Climate Laws (页面存档备份,存于互联网档案馆) - Laws, policies and litigation
- 2023 draft climate change law (in Turkish) (页面存档备份,存于互联网档案馆)
- Climate Portal (页面存档备份,存于互联网档案馆) - 'scientifically verified and reliable studies on climate change'